In this post, I will be elaborating on the topic of picking prospects in fantasy baseball. As previously stated, all of my advice is for keeper leagues. That's the only type of league that prospects are valuable in.
In my 3 years of fantasy baseball keeper leagues, I've selected prospects such as Evan Longoria, Clayton Kershaw, Tommy Hanson, Jay Bruce, Colby Rasmus, Matt Wieters, and Jason Heyward. So I've had success in picking prospects in the last couple years.
When attemtping to set up your team for success in the the current year and also in the future, it's important to understand that you are trying to win this year, as well as next. With that being said, never go crazy and get more than 2-3 prospects. Even 3 is pushing it. When I say prospects, I am referring to guys still in the minors or guys who will start the year on a major league roster, but have yet to play in the majors. Now that we have established the number of prospects to have on your team, let's talk about which ones to take.
When scouring the minor leagues for prospects, it's important to read, read, read. You have to find out what scouts are saying about this guy. Not just what ESPN is saying or commentators are mentioning during a broadcast. Baseball America is a great source as are other publications like the Sporting News. You can also go straight ot the source in MLB.com. I like to check out a guys minor league stats as well as what people say about him as a person. For instance, scouts were touting Longoria's abilities as well as the good head on his shoulders. It was the same with Clayton Kershaw. If a top ten minor league prospect has good numbers and the scouts and coaches say he has a "willingness to learn" and "coaches are impressed with his work ethic and humility", then that pushes a guy up my list. I made up those comments, but those type of things were said about Longoria, Kershaw, Heyward, and Tommy Hanson. A lot of those prospects I listed had qualities like that, but they really gushed over those three guys. Matt Wieters is another one that people were impressed with his maturity.
I like to stay away from guys that people say have "arrived." An example of this would be Stephen Strasburg. It's not that these guys are doomed to bust. Some of them will turn out to be good. But you usually have to take these guys way higher in a draft than you want to. I'm fine with a guy struggling a little bit when he gets called up. In my opinion, that adjustment period is good for them and will help them avoid the "sophomore slump" that often accompanies young players. You will probably have to suffer through some rough patches with these guys. That's to be expected a little bit. That's why you let them hang out on your bench. You shouldn't be expecting these guys to produce for your team and win a championship. Have reliable options that can fill the space until the prospect is a trustworthy value. If after an extended period of time, the prospect isn't progressing, be willing to trade him to somebody who believes in him, or cut him loose.
Besides, with these prospects, you're not looking for a guy that will be awesome his rookie year and then fizzle out. You are looking to get the next Ryan Braun that will anchor your team for years to come. That's what I'm saying with all of this. Find the players that have a history of listening to their coaches, respecting the game, and putting up numbers. Just like running a real team, you are looking for the whole package. You can't learn everything you need to know about a prospect from his minor league numbers.
So, in conclusion when trying to find the next top prospect, look for stats AND the good head on his shoulders. Don't take more than 2-3 prospects. Be willing to cut them loose after an extended period of struggling. And if you really believe in a guy, draft him and wait for him to get called up. You might be the genius who had the patience to wait for the next Albert Pujols.
(Ryan)
